The effect of European and global uncertainty on stock returns of travel and leisure companies

Abstract

This article aims to evaluate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure Price Index by utilizing a monthly data set for 20 years through 1997-2016. It is found that both the European and the global EPU have significant negative effects on the stock returns of travel and leisure companies. We demonstrate the significantly superior forecasting power of EPU measures on tourism and leisure stock returns, relative to a rather weak forecasting power of various macroeconomic variables.