Localized electoral effects of terrorism: the case of 2015 elections in Turkey

Abstract

How does pre-electoral terrorist violence affect the results of an election? One of the various ways terrorism can influence election outcomes is through manipulation of the voting behavior in localities where attacks occur. The literature finds that incumbents are electorally punished in target areas. The effects of terrorism on the fortunes of political parties associated with the insurgents, observed in many electoral democracies, however, are under-studied. Examining the two general elections that took place in Turkey in 2015, I analyze the effects of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attacks against civilian and combatant targets during the 5-month period between the two elections on the electoral performances of the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the insurgent-associated Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). I argue that the localized effects of pre-electoral terrorist violence on electoral outcomes is mediated by the existing electoral support for the insurgent-associated political party. The results demonstrate that violence helps this party in its support zone, while it works for the incumbent elsewhere; but the incumbent is held accountable for attacks against civilians by electorates in all areas. I conclude that further disaggregation of the target types will further enhance our understanding of how terrorist violence affects election outcomes.