Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies' stock returns

Abstract

This study examines whether the stock prices of Turkish tourism companies respond to growth in eight macro-economic variables namely, consumer price index, imports, exchange rate, consumer confidence index, oil price, money supply, foreign tourist arrivals, and monthly stock market return. By applying the Granger causality procedure, we find that growth in the consumer confidence index and imports could Granger cause tourism companies' stock returns among eight macro factors in Turkey during the 2005 to 2013 period. After considering the structural break that occurred in 2007, the pre-break results indicate that the consumer confidence index, exchange rate, and foreign tourist arrivals could Granger cause tourism stock returns. However, the results in the post-structural break period reveal that only growths in oil prices and imports are significant.