Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

Abstract

This paper applies a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Turkey's tourist arrivals (TAs) from January 1990 to December 2018. The newly developed Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) is used to measure GPRs. Test results reveal interesting findings. While the effects of GPRs on TAs are expected, the effects are found to be asymmetric in the short run. Specifically, an increase in GPRI reduces TAs in Turkey, but a decrease in GPRI has no effect in the short run. Moreover, there is no evidence for such an asymmetry in the long run.